Insights from 25 million clients show how spending shifts from Black Friday to the festive season and January.
Capitec data defines the spend shift for consumers and businesses. With a client base representing over a third of the country’s economically active population, Capitec offers the most authoritative view of South Africa’s consumer landscape. A comparative analysis of three major economic weekends – Black Friday 2024, the mid-December holiday rush, and the end-of-January 2025 payday – reveals a definitive picture of the “Savvy Shopper” South African. Data from the country’s leading digital bank shows that while Black Friday remains the undisputed king of spending, the behaviour seen in January 2025 points to a client base that is disciplined, resilient and quick to restock on essentials.
By tracking consumer behaviour across these three critical periods, Capitec gives a representative view of the economy through the lens of its now 25 million clients.
The three periods analysed include:
Despite the rise of Black November, where retailers spread Black Friday deals throughout the month, the Black Friday weekend itself (29 - 30 Nov) generated the highest volume (55 million transactions) and value (R25.3 billion) of the three periods analysed.
When compared to the January 2025 payday weekend, Black Friday spend was 15% higher in value and 8.8% higher in volume. This confirms that South Africans still reserve their biggest financial firepower for this specific promotional window, using it strategically to buy essentials.
Groceries emerged as one of the highest spend categories during the Black Friday weekend, with more than 112 transactions per second and 10 million total transactions to the value of R3 billion.
“What started as a day to rush for discounts on TVs, appliances, and tech has taken on a new meaning for South African households,” explains Francois Viviers, Capitec’s Group Executive of Marketing and Communications.
The most telling trend emerges when comparing the festive rush of December to January’s back-to-reality weekend.
“This is a fascinating signal of household discipline,” explains Viviers. “In December, basket sizes are larger as people buy gifts and food for the festive period. In January, the spending value drops, but the activity increases. The 6.7% jump in transaction volume suggests a big ‘restocking’ event where clients are making more frequent, smaller purchases to replenish their homes with survival basics after the long January stretch. At this time the back-to-school rush also drives client behaviour.”
Data from Capitec’s 85 000 trading merchants reveals that Black Friday is impacting turnover; when comparing the Black Friday weekend to other November weekends, specific townships recorded growth in merchant turnover:
In Soweto, Black Friday turnover was 0.41% of the total turnover of the town, compared to 0.35% of the total turnover on a normal November weekend, giving a relative increase of 0.6%. Despite this minor increase, it does indicate that small to medium enterprises can benefit from Black Friday with greater strategic support from the right financial partner. These figures also show that there is opportunity to tap into consumer awareness of Black Friday for growth, but for SMEs this won’t be without challenges.
Supermarkets are drawing township residents with bigger discount deals than what spaza shops can offer. However, SMEs can make the most of Black Friday in other ways.
“Savvy business owners can use November as an opportune time to stock up for the high-demand festive season, protecting their margins and stretching their budgets,” says Viviers. “However, this opportunity is not equal. The core barrier for these small businesses is cash flow.”
The 2025 Township Customer Experience Report notes that when entrepreneurs need to borrow, only around 15% turn to a bank, while 21% rely on high-risk informal lenders. This lack of access to working capital prevents them from stocking up when prices are low, however, collective buying and smart capital can solve this issue. With 71% of township residents participating in stokvels, entrepreneurs are adapting existing social buying networks for business.
“The final piece of the puzzle is bridging the cash flow gap. To make the most of Black Friday, traders need access to simple, short-term revolving capital before the rush. This gives entrepreneurs the power to buy stock when prices are lowest and repay once their December sales come in.”
“We are seeing a hybrid economy,” notes Viviers. “Our clients don't choose either cash or digital – they go for both, depending on the context.”
Capitec recorded around 113 transactions per second through digital channels like Capitec Pay and online card orders during Black Friday. However, cash remains crucial. Capitec clients withdrew over R4.5 billion in the same Black Friday period, a trend sustained by the need for daily purchases, the perceived convenience of currency and the avoidance of transaction fees.
“From the strategic bulk-buying of Black Friday to the high-frequency restocking of January, South Africans are not just spending; they are actively managing their money to make it through each season. For retailers, the learning is clear: value is the only metric that matters, whether it’s a luxury purchase in November or a loaf of bread in January.“
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